According to the White House, US GDP in 2022 will grow by 2.8%. If we look at the forecasts published by the Federal Reserve, the growth of this indicator should not exceed 2.4%. The US government is more optimistic in its forecasts and predicts the same growth in US GDP in 2022.
Such a forecast announced by the US government is the best indicator of the last ten years. Small values ​​of the growth of the gross domestic product in the US should not be embarrassing. For example, in some African countries, such as Rwanda or Somalia, economic growth is about 8% per year. However, their economy is very weak, and any improvement has an immediate effect, showing great growth.
If you look at the difference between the government’s forecast and the forecast given by the IMF specialists, it turns out that the difference is only 0.4%. However, this difference in absolute terms is almost $38 billion. This is the GDP of such countries as Jordan, Libya, and Serbia.
The value of this indicator, according to the results of 2021, amounted to $18 trillion and 419 billion. For comparison, the total volume of the world economy or the annual GDP of the whole world is about $78 trillion. Hence, the US share of the world GDP is 24.43%.
China’s economy is estimated at $11 trillion 968 billion. It occupies 15% of the world GDP and is in second place after the United States. Japan ranks third with a GDP of $4.3 trillion.
Under the current US budget, government spending will amount to $4.1 trillion. If the budget deficit in 2021 is planned at $608 billion, then in 2022, it will be about $504 billion.
Whose prediction is justified?
If we take the available indicators for the first quarter of 2021, then the US GDP growth is 0.8%. This surprised the experts a lot since during this period the growth was expected to be twice lower. To understand that this is a very high growth rate, it is enough to multiply it by 4 (the number of quarters in a year), and it turns out that the country’s GDP will grow by 3.2% per year.
At the beginning of the year, the States traditionally experience an economic lull, which follows the Thanksgiving and Christmas sales in November-December. After that, in the remaining winter months, the economic development and trade freeze. The situation is aggravated by severe frosts in the first two months after the New Year.
The difference of 0.3% is explained by the fact that private investment in inventories did not fall as much as previously thought. However, there were those analysts who expected growth of 0.9% in this period.
At the same time, experts from the Danish Saxo Bank accurately pointed to the US economic growth rate during this period. Moreover, it is necessary to consider the fact that for the same period in 2021, the US economic growth was 0.7%.