NVIDIA and AMD’s next-gen graphics cards are likely to be priced higher than their existing counterparts. This is largely due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages, and the inflation in graphics card prices. At the moment, more than 50% of gamers are using GPUs that are 5+ years old, with less than 70% having support for ray-tracing. Only 14% of the GeForce database is using an RTX 30 series “Ampere” GPU.
Furthermore, just over 20% of PC gamers are presently using graphics cards on par or faster than the latest-gen PS5 or Xbox Series X consoles. This is once again due to limited inventory and scalping by cryptominers. This has resulted in a sharp decline in the upgrade cycle which usually achieves a rate of 40% (14% this cycle) by the launch of the next-generation lineup.
The inflated prices give GPU vendors an opportunity to widen their profit margins next cycle. The average market price of the RTX 30 series lineup is $482 which is 15% to 75% higher than Turing (RTX 20) which averaged between $200-300. Similarly, AMD’s budget Radeon RX 6000 GPUs sell between $299 to $399, a fair bit higher than the Polaris range that averaged between $150-250.
In our view, consumer willingness to buy graphics cards at inflated prices is a signal that NVDA still has plenty of room to grow ASPs even from higher Ampere levels.Vivek Arya, BofA
This also gives NVIDIA and AMD to price their next-gen graphics cards higher than before as most gamers have already gotten used to the inflated prices. Only this time, it’ll go right into the vendors’ coffers rather than to scalpers and retailers. Going by the original pricing of the Turing cards, it won’t be surprising if the RTX 4080 is priced around $999, and the RTX 4090 at $1,499.