According to a Trendforce report, memory prices are expected to slide by 5-10%in the last quarter of this year. The research firm believes that changes in the supply chain, coupled with large deltas between supply and demand, will cause a larger than expected drop in DRAM prices. Chipmakers and suppliers have still not reached an agreement on the contract price of DRAM in the third quarter, indicating a likely decrease in the fourth.
The report states that the supply of DRAM is going strong, and excess inventory is likely to result in a decline in the last quarter. As the demand for PCs returns to normal and growth slows down, oversupply is almost inevitable. In the server space, the results are the same, though more pronounced. Chipmakers are reporting massive inventory stocking, with suppliers holding inventory for as much as 10 weeks of shipments.
Overall, a drop of 3-8% is expected in the last quarter, with the PC DRAM market seeing the bulk of it. The forecast for the first half of 2022 should follow a similar trend.