AMD is expected to hit a record high revenue for the financial year 2020, demonstrating a massive YoY growth of 38% compared to 2019. The bulk of this money is going to come from the launch of the next-gen Xbox Series X|S and Sony PS5 consoles.
|Revenue ($ Millions)||2019 (Actual)||2020||2021||2022||2023||2024||2025|
|Analyst Day CAGR of 20% applied evenly:||6,731||8,683||10,420||12,504||15,005||–||–|
|Form S4 Filed on Friday, December 4 2020:||6,731||9,319||11,500||14,000||17,000||19,550||22,000|
|Growth rate implied by S4:||–||38%||23%||22%||21%||15%||13%|
The yearly growth is expected to stay in the early 20s for the next 2-3 years, falling to 15% and 13% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. It’s unclear why the projected gains for the latter half of the decade are progressively lower but I’d say it’s got to do with the fall in console sales as the next-to-next generation is prepped.
For the first nine months of this year, AMD has earned $6,519 million, roughly the same as last year’s entire figure. There’s still a quarter left which is expected to pull in a revenue of around $3 billion, marking a 30%+ yearly gain in the YoY earning.
This report highlights just how important the console business is to AMD and why it has kept both Sony and Microsoft close over the past decade. However, I believe these estimates are a bit conservative. AMD recently cracked the notebook and Chromebook markets after more than a decade, both of which are much more lucrative than the DIY segment.
The company is also making steady gains in the server space, and the launch of the Big Navi and CDNA GPUs is also an important step towards establishing a more balanced eco-system in both the PC gaming and Data Center markets.